BREAKING LA MAYOR RACE POLLS UPDATE: Shocking New Survey Shows Independent Candidate Surging Past Both Party Frontrunners
A newly leaked internal polling memo from an undisclosed campaign has sent shockwaves through the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race. The survey, conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, shows longtime frontrunner Councilmember Kevin de León and his opponent, Representative Karen Bass, both trailing by a narrow margin against a third-party independent candidate, small business owner and current City Commissioner Omar Duarte.
The memo claims Duarte has gained massive traction with key demographics, including Asian American voters and younger homeowners frustrated with the homelessness crisis and rising rent costs. One section of the leaked document reads “Duarte leads among voters under 45 by nearly 15 points.”
Political analysts are cautiously skeptical, pointing out that the survey’s sample size is smaller than typical professional polls and was conducted by a firm with ties to a political action committee backing Duarte. The de León and Bass campaigns both released statements calling the leak “fake news designed to mislead voters.”
Fact-checkers at two independent outlets have rated the claim as HOAX and MISLEADING. They found that no major polling aggregator (including FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics) has listed a three-way race or included Duarte in their latest averages. Furthermore, the so-called “memo” appears to have been circulated only on a single email list and lacks a verifiable contact name or phone number.
Verdict: FAKE. While an independent surge might be possible, the specific numbers in this viral snippet are unverifiable and contradicted by every established public poll released this month. Do not share without confirmation from a reputable local news source.