LA Mayor Race Polls Reveal Tight Three-Way Contest Ahead of Primary Election
LOS ANGELES, CA – March 25, 2025 – A new wave of polling data for the Los Angeles mayoral race indicates a statistically tight three-way contest among leading candidates, intensifying speculation about a potential runoff election.
WHO: The poll surveyed approximately 1,200 registered voters across Los Angeles County, capturing preferences for the top contenders, including incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, challengers developer Rick Caruso, and City Councilmember Kevin de León.
WHAT: The survey, conducted by the independent polling firm California Research Institute, shows Mayor Bass leading with 28 percent support, followed closely by Caruso at 26 percent and de León at 23 percent. The remaining share is divided among other candidates and undecided voters. Analysts highlight that a candidate must receive over 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 6.
WHEN: The polling data was released on Monday morning, March 24, 2025, and reflects responses gathered between March 18 and March 22, just weeks before the primary election scheduled for April 8.
WHERE: The findings are specific to the City of Los Angeles, focusing on voter sentiment in key districts including the San Fernando Valley, South Los Angeles, and the Westside, where turnout is expected to be pivotal.
WHY: The tightening of the LA mayor race polls is attributed to shifting voter priorities on homelessness, public safety, and economic recovery, with late-deciding voters potentially determining the outcome.
In a statement, poll director Dr. Amanda Torres noted, "With margins within the margin of error, this race remains highly fluid. Any candidate could secure the necessary momentum to force a runoff." The report underscores that voter turnout, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical in the final weeks of the campaign.