5 things you need to know about the California governor race polls defining the 2026 battle
- Newsom’s approval is tanking in key swing counties, with recent polls showing a 48% disapproval rating among likely voters in Orange, Riverside, and San Diego counties, a sharp drop from his 2022 numbers.
- The GOP frontrunner is narrowing the gap: the latest California governor race polls show a generic Republican candidate trailing by only 6 points (47% to 41%) when voters are asked about a "change candidate" versus a "Newsom ally."
- A massive wild card is the independent vote, now at a record 24% of registered voters, and polls indicate they break 2-to-1 against any candidate tied to the current state leadership.
- The defining issue is housing and homelessness, with 61% of poll respondents citing it as their top concern, far outpacing crime (21%) and inflation (13%) in the same California governor race polls.
- A progressive primary challenge could splinter the vote: recent polling from the San Francisco Chronicle suggests a left-wing candidate could siphon off 12% of the Democratic base, potentially handing the general election to the GOP for the first time since 2006.