**Subject:** Cooper vs. Whatley Poll: GOP Base Fracture Signals Risk for 2024 Senate Map

Subject: Cooper vs. Whatley Poll: GOP Base Fracture Signals Risk for 2024 Senate Map

The Data Point: A new internal survey shows Roy Cooper (D-NC) leading Michael Whatley (R-NC) by 4 points among likely voters, but the truly alarming signal for GOP leadership is within the Republican base: [22% of Whatley’s own party voters say they “don’t know enough” to support him] .

Why This Matters: Cooper is a tested, high-floor statewide winner. Whatley, saddled with a low national profile and lingering “rigged vote” rhetoric from 2020, is bleeding swing-ticket trust—especially among suburban women who broke for Trump in 2024 but are now unmoved by Whatley’s message.

Bottom Line: If this gap holds, the RNC’s “safe hold” North Carolina seat becomes a top-2 pickup priority for Democrats, forcing the NRSC to burn cash in a state they cannot afford to lose. The poll suggests the race is not “Lean R”—it is a toss-up with a broken floor.

Recommendation: Whatley needs a $1M+ definitional ad buy before August or Cooper wins the “default” support of wavering GOP leaners.